CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30655/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Partial halo CME seen in both coronagraphs and associated with an X1.1 flare from AR 3664 (S18W29) with a full halo faint shock and a slightly brighter fuzzy-fronted bulk to the west. The start time is possibly earlier that 2024-05-09T18:23Z bc of a SOHO data gap. Coronal signatures include a sizable ejecta from AR 3664 seen directed north-westwards at ~17:36ZZ in AIA 304, an elongated dimming extending northward and westward of the flare location and stretching as far as the two coronal holes north of the equator. A possible arrival signature is characterized by a weak rotation of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 15nT. A subsequent increase in speed is observed from ~770 km/s to 1005 km/s at 2024-05-12T00:555Z and a sharp increase in temperature. Density appears to decrease preceding this arrival signature. Possibly this is a flank impact/glancing blow arrival. Due to the increase in solar wind speed a coronal hole high speed stream may also be embedded in this signature, originating from a coronal hole which reached the central meridian on 2024-05-03.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T20:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T02:22Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 895.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 960.681 Acceleration: -2.17140 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 201561.28 Duration in days: 2.3328851 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.17 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 523.0 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 12/05/2024 Time: 02:22 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 24.15 hour(s)
Difference: -5.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-05-10T20:21Z
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